Insights & News
A common belief is that broader and deeper bank regulations decrease earnings and share value. Would SVB’s, SBNY’s, and FRCB’s shareholders agree?
Nine initial impressions of the Fed’s report on SVB including why we anticipate more supervision and attempts to reverse the loosening of scrutiny in 2017 – 2020.
Mayer Brown regulatory partner, Matt Bisanz, and CEO Andy Spero talk about trends and best practices for managing risk – and advice to those just starting out.
Climate Change, Extreme Weather and Loan Losses. We analyze differences in default rates, LGDs, and loss rates for mortgages in four recent and costly storms.
Since Silicon Valley Bank’s demise, many have been yapping about the importance of capital and capital ratios, but it’s never about capital. It’s always about liquidity!
Andy Spero explains what he concluded from the Fed’s discount window seemingly turning SVB away, and his thoughts on why the FDIC rushed to close SVB down.
We summarize the guidance, analyze the recent revisions, and outline the differences in the tailoring framework for CCAR Supervisory Expectations.
Recent Insights
Alternatives to Unemployment as a Commercial Loan Loss Predictor
After reading our post, Unemployment as a Commercial Loan Loss Predictor, someone asked, “…what would be a better leading indicator than unemployment rate in your opinion?” At a national level, there are economic variables that lead…
Read MoreUnemployment as a Commercial Loan Loss Predictor
This the first in a sequence of three posts. The second describes alternatives to the unemployment rate for C&I loss forecasting, and the third one provides more evidence why the unemployment rate is a poor choice for C&I loss forecasting. Re…
Read More2017 – 2019 Federal Reserve and Company Run CCAR Results
Almost four years ago, we aggregated and published the Fed's and Companies' 2016 CCAR results. We're surprised by the continued interest in those nearly four-year-old numbers; so, we asked one of our analysts to generate similar graphs for 2017, 2018…
Read MoreIs the Third Time a Charm for Effective Risk Management?
There’s an old curse that seems very appropriate today: “May you live in interesting times.” Indeed! With that in mind, consider both (1) an exercise of ranking hypothetical catastrophes and (2) recent history since 2001. Imagine if last year s…
Read MoreQ1 2020 Large Bank CECL Estimates
There is intense curiosity about the effects of CECL on banks’ financial statements via credit reserves–the ALLL or Allowance for Loan and Lease Losses; so, we surveyed the earnings releases, investors’ presentations and 10Qs and Ks of CC…
Read MoreStress Testing and the Corona Virus at Risk.net Training
Lately, our business has been CECL, CECL and more CECL, but if all goes well, Andy will present two sessions on the other type of loss forecasting at Risk.net’s Stress Testing Training in New York City on March 26 & 27. 1. Building a Stress Testi…
Read MoreSpero Risk at Stress Testing: CCAR & DFAST Seminar
Next Wednesday and Thursday, June 13 and 14, Phil Chamberlain, EVP of Risk and Data Governance, and Andy Spero will present sessions at Risk.net’s two-day course in New York City, Stress Testing: CCAR & DFAST. On Wednesday, Phil will presen…
Read MoreCongratulations Lucy!
While there are similarities in approach, usually, there’s not much overlap between Spero Risk Associates (SRA) and Andy’s other job as the head track and field coach at John Carroll Catholic High School. However, our part-time, administr…
Read MoreSpero Risk – WBA Webinar Series
In conjunction with the Western Banking Association (WBA), we’re offering a series of webinars, entitled, “Crucial Resources for the Effective CRO.” The three webinars will go beyond regulations and bureaucracy to explain what you n…
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