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“A small team of A+ players can run circles around a giant team of B and C players.” — Steve Jobs PresidentA recognized industry leader in risk management, stress testing, modeling, and model risk management, Andy has built models for 35 years in economics, credit risk, valuation, market risk, and loss forecasting. Nowadays, he especially…
Read MoreTraining and Coaching
Training Our corporate training and course development experience dates back more than 30 years.1 However, by itself, that experience means nothing, especially if we are teaching 30-year-old ideas. By analyzing and modeling many of the industry’s toughest problems, we have remained at its forefront–in both theory and in practice. That practical experience…
Read MoreDoes Unemployment Predict CRE Losses?
Dear Reader: This is the fourth in a series of articles on using the unemployment rate (U) for commercial loan loss forecasting, including CECL and stress testing. In the first three posts, we described how industry-wide C&I charge-offs (C&I COs) lead the unemployment rate and how, unlike with most consumer loans, C&I charge-offs trail…
Read MoreCECL and the Corona Virus
1. Introduction: The 4 R’s At the beginning of January 2020, we thought of CECL in terms of the 4 R’s: The R’s are listed in their likely order of occurrence—just about every place will review, most will renew, some will revise, etc. Review—is ongoing monitoring and includes: Feedback from internal & external constituents Back-testing…
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Does Unemployment Predict Commercial Loan Losses?
The Short Answer: Historically, No, It’s the Other Way Around The Long Answer: let’s look at scatter plots and correlations and see the two large problems with using it. This is the third in a series of three posts. Two Regimes In our first post, Unemployment as a Commercial Loan Loss Predictor, we showed time-series graphs of the unemployment…
Read MoreTraining and Coaching
Training Our corporate training and course development experience dates back more than 30 years.1 However, by itself, that experience means nothing, especially if we are teaching 30-year-old ideas. By…
Read MoreDoes Unemployment Predict CRE Losses?
Dear Reader: This is the fourth in a series of articles on using the unemployment rate (U) for commercial loan loss forecasting, including CECL and stress testing. In the first three posts, we described…
Read MoreCECL and the Corona Virus
1. Introduction: The 4 R’s At the beginning of January 2020, we thought of CECL in terms of the 4 R’s: The R’s are listed in their likely order of occurrence—just about every place will…
Read MoreDoes Unemployment Predict Commercial Loan Losses?
The Short Answer: Historically, No, It’s the Other Way Around The Long Answer: let’s look at scatter plots and correlations and see the two large problems with using it. This is the third…
Read More