Recent Insights

Common Governance Mistakes

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Two Common Validation Mistakes

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Does Unemployment Predict CRE Losses?

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CECL and the Corona Virus

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Does Unemployment Predict Commercial Loan Losses?

Does Unemployment Predict Commercial Loan Losses?

The Short Answer: Historically, No, It’s the Other Way Around The Long Answer: let’s look at scatter plots and correlations and see the two large problems with using it. This is the third in a series of three posts. Two Regimes In our fir…

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Q1 2020 Large Bank CECL Reserves

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Alternatives to Unemployment as a Commercial Loan Loss Predictor

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Unemployment as a Commercial Loan Loss Predictor

This the first in a sequence of three posts. The second describes alternatives to the unemployment rate for C&I loss forecasting, and the third one provides more evidence why the unemployment rate is a poor choice for C&I loss forecasting. Re…

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2017 – 2019 Federal Reserve and Company Run CCAR Results

Almost four years ago, we aggregated and published the Fed's and Companies' 2016 CCAR results. We're surprised by the continued interest in those nearly four-year-old numbers; so, we asked one of our analysts to generate similar graphs for 2017, 2018…

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